Many speculate on the fate of craft beer in America (and the world
for that matter). Ranging from intense optimism to dismissive criticism, most
people know that craft beer is growing but all have different thoughts on the
future. These opinions come in a few different variations.
First, the extreme optimist believes the market will continue to
grow at a steady rate, and all the small craft brewers will remain true and not
sell-out. While this ideal world sure would be nice, it certainly does not hold
much truth based on what we know about business and history. As we have seen
time and time again, big markets eventually are compressed down to a few key
players that dominate.. Many craft breweries are going to fail (many have
already), and some are going to be bought out (i.e. Goose Island).
Second, you will catch the occasional person who claims that craft
is really just a fad that will quickly die. Dedicated craft beer enthusiasts
would be quick to knock this down and with good reason: craft beer is simply
too popular to go away. However, craft beer enthusiasts would need to consider
the source before quickly going on the defensive. Naysayers proposing the
"fad" opinion generally do not drink craft beer very often and have
not really been a part of the growing market. It makes sense they would
perceive a fad, based on their limited exposure to the movement. Rest-assured
though, it seems pretty clear the movement has many die-hard followers, who are
not going anywhere. At least, not anytime soon.
This leads me to the last opinion of the cynical ones who think
believe all the craft players will eventually be bought out and the movement
will end. Unfortunately, this is probably closer to the truth. Go watch the
wonderful movie, Beer Wars. The movie highlights some key points about the big
players' iron grip on the market. With less than 7% of the market share, craft brewers have to fight for shelf space
and tap space. This fight for such a small market could mean many of the small
brewers will have to sell out to larger companies or be forced to go out of business.
It seems like a terrible end to such a passionate movement, but it
really does not have to be that bad. This will not be likely to happen because the
craft market is firmly established and die-hard customers have
a lot of clout with their dollar. If In-Bev buys a favorite local company, it
really does them no good to intentionally hurt the quality of the product.
Craft beer is here to stay, regardless of who owns it.
Even more important, is growing popularity of homebrewing. For argument's sake, lets say In-Bev buys up all of the local
breweries and makes them all produce Budweiser Chelada over and over. Everyone
would still have the last weapon left in the arsenal, homebrewing. Everyone
can, and should, try to homebrew. With enough research, dedication, and effort,
you can make fantastic beer. If one of the your local companies stops making
your favorite beer, then do some research and learn how to clone it. Most
likely its probably pretty simple. You really just need the proper time,
equipment, and knowledge.
Homebrewing will always be the voice of the people. If you do not
like where the market is going then brew your own. Until In-Bev buys all the
local homebrew shops and forces them to only sell Bud Light Lime kits.
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